Regular Article
Estimating the Probability of Occurrence of Tumor for a Rare Cancer with Zero Occurrence in a Sample

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Abstract

In many physical situations one needs to estimate the probability of occurrence of a rare event based on a random sample when the event has not occurred at all. For example, if the true lifetime incidence of a tumor at a particular tissue site is less than 1%, it is not uncommon to observe no tumors in a typical sample size of 50 animals. This paper explores the suitability of nonzero Bayesian estimation procedures to replace zero maximum likelihood estimates for tissue sites with nonzero background tumor incidences.

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