Population estimate of people with clinical Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment in the United States (2020-2060)

Introduction: The estimate of people with clinical Alzheimer's disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment provides an understanding of the disease burden.

Methods: We estimated people with cognitive impairment using a quasibinomial regression model in 10,342 participants with cognitive test scores.

Results: The 2020 US Census-adjusted prevalence of clinical AD was 11.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.7-11.9): 10.0% among non-Hispanic Whites, 14.0% among Hispanics, and 18.6% among non-Hispanic Blacks. We estimate that in 2020, 6.07 (95% CI = 5.75-6.38) million people were living with clinical AD, which increases to 13.85 (95% CI = 12.98-14.74) million in 2060, 423% higher among Hispanics, 192% higher among Blacks, and 63% higher among Whites. However, there are predicted to be more significant increases in later years among those over 85 and women compared to men.

Discussion: The number of people with clinical AD will increase as the "baby boom" generation reaches older ages, exerting a strong upward influence on disease burden.