Fundamental puzzles of climate science remain unsolved because of our limited understanding
of how clouds, circulation and climate interact. One example is our inability to provide …

Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate
warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone …

The frequency with which tropical cyclones (TCs) occur controls all other aspects of tropical
cyclone risk since a storm that does not occur can do no harm. Yet this frequency is poorly …

Horizontal temperature gradients are small in the tropical atmosphere, as a consequence of
the smallness of the Coriolis parameter near the equator. This provides a strong constraint …

ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) has a large influence on tropical cyclone activity. The
authors examine how different environmental factors contribute to this influence, using a …

… Sobel, 2004: Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO. IRI Tech. Rep. …
Sobel Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, and Department of Earth and …

The warming of the entire tropical free troposphere in response to El Niño is well established,
and suggests a tropical mechanism for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) …

… Sobel … Sobel Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, and
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, New …

The modulation of tropical cyclone activity by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is explored
using an empirical genesis potential (GP) index. Composite anomalies of the genesis …

As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information
is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of uncertainties. …